I’ve been sitting around for weeks now thinking about what the Red Sox will do this off season. Will they bring back Jason Bay? Do they make a run at Adrian Gonzalez or Felix Hernandez? Do they trade for Roy Halladay? Do they open the checkbook for Matt Holliday?

I’m starting to think that they are about to make a big move this winter. Why, you ask? All you have to do is look at this team’s payroll since John Henry purchased the club following the 2001 season. Keep in mind, these figures are the team’s payroll going into each season.

year                       payroll

2001                   110,035,883
2002                   108,366,060
2003                     99,946,500
2004                   127,298,500
2005                   123,505,125
2006                   120,099,824
2007                   143,026,214
2008                   133,390,035
2009                   121,745,999

*cot’s salaries

Payroll went down in ‘02 and ‘03 before it skyrocketed in ‘04, the year the Red Sox won the World Series. Payroll again went down for two seasons in ‘05 and ‘06 before it had a big jump in ‘07, when the Sox once again won the World Series.

Check out what the Sox payroll has done the last two years. Now, I’m not saying that it’s a given that the Sox are going to go on a shopping spree this off season and win the World Series again, but there seems to be a pattern here. The Sox cut payroll for two years and then made a big jump the next year. Maybe this is just a coincidence, maybe it’s a business plan.

Whatever the reason, if the team follows the pattern, the next question is, who in this class of free agents do you open up the checkbook for? Let me give you my two cents. You make two moves: you sign Matt Holliday and you trade for Roy Halladay. It would cause utter chaos over the sports radio airwaves as members of Red Sox Nation would constantly confuse the two to no end. It would make great headlines for all the print media if they can get both done before, you guessed it, the holidays. Let’s not forget that they are both very good at what they do.

I’m sure there are those out there saying, ‘Why not just bring back Jason Bay?’ You make a good point, but I just feel that Holliday is a better all around player. He’s younger, albeit a year and a half. The one edge that I would give Bay would be that he has already shown us that he can play in this market. I know that’s extremely important, but sometimes you have to take a chance. The Sox did with Bay when they picked him up to replace Manny Ramirez in left a year and a half ago.

I’ve heard a lot of people say that Holliday is a National League hitter. I couldn’t disagree more. First off, Oakland is not a good place to hit. It’s a big ballpark where the ball doesn’t carry very well. Secondly, that lineup that he was in was anemic. He had nobody getting on base in front of him with no protection behind him. Not a good combination for success. Thirdly, and I think most importantly, it was the first time in his career that he was traded.

I remember when I was traded in 2003 to the San Diego Padres. I had spent my whole career with the Boston Red Sox and I found myself trying too hard to prove my worth to my new teammates. At times, I put too much pressure on myself, especially early in the season. You can look at Holliday’s numbers in Oakland and say that they weren’t that impressive, but you have to look deeper. In his last 16 games with Oakland before the trade, Holliday hit .349 with 3 HRs and 13 RBIs. Go back to his last 26 games and you’ll see that he hit .330. The point is is that he was starting to get comfortable and hitting American League pitching just fine.

You can look at Roy Halladay and say that he was the one that got away, at least last year. Toronto will trade Halladay, the question is to whom? They have to trade him. There is no way they can hold onto him for another season and just let him go for nothing.

What I’m wondering is did Clay Buchholz’s trade stock rise last season? I think that it did. He finally showed that he can get it done in the Big Leagues. But if Toronto insists that Daniel Bard be included in the package, I don’t see this thing taking place. Of course if a deal is done, the Sox would have to work out an extension in order for Halladay to waive his no-trade clause.

So how much are these two worth? I would say that Holliday is looking for six years. Would he settle for five years at $18 million per season? If he does … done. I think Halladay (who is set to earn $15.75 million in 2010) would want an extension of at least three years. This one could get interesting because Halladay has every right to compare himself to Johan Santana, who signed in 2008 at the age of 29 for six years and $137.5 million. Roy Halladay is 32. I would say a three-year deal sounds about right. The question is how much is he looking for? Maybe $20 million? Let’s say three years at $18 million per season … done.

So we are talking $36 million a year for two players. Money well spent. Sounds like a nice jump in payroll to me. Don’t you just love spending other people’s money? (Sorry, Mr. Henry.)

It is interesting to think about that jump, since after payroll has gone down two years in a row, there is a pattern that shows an increase in that third year. I guess we’ll have to wait and see if it’s nothing more than a coincidence.

Lou Merloni will be joined by WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford and Alex Speier on Thursday, Nov. 19, at noon for a Red Sox Hot Stove Chat. To join the conversation, click here.

Pedro Martinez is back in New York to face the Yankees. (AP)

After watching Game 1 of the World Series, in which the Phillies took a decisive 6-1 win, I came to one conclusion: the Phillies and Yankees are very similar in many ways.

• They both have a dominant “ace.”
• They both have very good power from the left side of the plate.
• They both have question marks in their respective bullpens.

The biggest difference is the back end of the ‘pen. Mariano Rivera is unquestionably the best closer of all time. Brad Lidge is still very fragile, even though he has been better this postseason than he was in the regular season. When you look at the two managers, Charlie Manuel seems to sit back and let his guys play the game. Joe Giardi, on the other hand, has shown us already this postseason that he has a tendency to overmanage late in the game, making more than a few people scratch their heads.

I said before this series started that the deciding factor may be how the two teams’ aces perform. Last night, Cliff Lee was better than CC Sabathia. Hell, he was dominant.

In playing with Cliff in 2004 and 2006, I learned that he is one of the most confident individuals I’ve ever met. He’s a tough kid. He will not be rattled no matter the circumstance. He’s also one of the most competitive guys I’ve ever come across. No matter if it’s poker, cribbage or the game of baseball, he wants to beat you down.

Funny story. In 2004, the Reds came to town and Ken Griffey Jr. was sitting on 498 career home runs. Cliff was on the mound. Now, keep in mind that this was Cliff’s first full year in the big leagues, and he was facing future Hall of Famer Ken Griffey Jr. In Junior’s first at-bat, he hit a ball into the right field bleachers for No. 499. When Cliff came into the dugout, he sat on the bench and said to me, “I can tell you one thing, he won’t hit No. 500 off of me.” When Junior came up again, Cliff sailed the first pitch over his head to the backstop and got thrown out of the game. It raised a lot of eyebrows in the dugout, because you don’t throw the ball up by the head, especially to Ken Griffey Jr. When Cliff came into the dugout, he walked to the end of the dugout, grabbed his jacket, looked up to me and said, “I told you he wasn’t going to hit 500 off of me.”

At that point, I realized that Cliff Lee had an edge to him that I had never known. It was a Pedro Martinez moment. He’s confident, he’s cocky, and to be honest, not all there. But he can throw the hell out of the ball.

Speaking of Pedro Martinez, is there anyone out there who isn’t rooting for him in Game 2? This is must-see TV. Thursday night, sit back and enjoy watching the greatest pitcher that I have ever seen. The stuff may not be the same, but the heart is still as big as ever. The Phillies can take total control of this series if a highly motivated Pedro can go out and execute his pitches like he did in Los Angeles in the NLCS. It’s time for A.J. Burnett to earn his money by countering Pedro’s efforts.

Even if Burnett wins, to me, the only way that the Yankees can now win this series is by throwing CC Sabathia in Games 4 and 7. He’s shown that he can handle throwing on three days’ rest, and I’m not sure that Cliff Lee can.

Now that the season is officially over, it’s time to talk about next year. I think that we all agree that as long as the Red Sox still have Jon Lester, Josh Beckett, Daisuke Matsuzaka and Clay Buchholz, their pitching staff is lined up to be one of the best in the American League once again. Their bullpen still has its solid core at the back end with Jonathan Papelbon and Daniel Bard to go with another year of Hideki Okajima. There still are some question marks when it comes to Manny Delcarmen as well as Ramon Ramirez. But for the most part, it’s not the pitching staff that has Red Sox Nation concerned next year. It’s the offense.

We get so caught up in what we just saw, and what we just saw wasn’t pretty. John Lackey and Jered Weaver are very good pitchers, but we never thought that they were good enough to make this lineup look as anemic as it looked for the first two games of the postseason.

The truth of the matter is that good pitching beats good hitting. We may not want to admit it, but Lackey and Weaver pitched their butts off. After hearing caller after caller this week, I find it funny that nobody wants to admit that. Everyone thinks that it was the lack of offense and that this lineup was a big disappointment. I agree that it was, but what do you think that Angels fans were saying last year when Lester threw 14 innings without giving up an earned run? Do you really think that they felt he was that good? Or do you think that they were saying the exact same thing we are? Or when Beckett was virtually unhittable during October in 2007? Was that really him or was it because every offense he faced underachieved? Face it, Red Sox fans, they pitched better. It wasn’t the offense. It wasn’t playing on the road. It was Lackey and Weaver. End of story.

So where does this team go to improve this lineup next year? I’m one that believes that we may not see many changes at all. I believe that Victor Martinez will be the everyday catcher and Jason Varitek, once he picks up his player option for $3 million, will be the backup. The Sox, as a team, hit .239 at the catcher position in 2009. That will improve with Vic behind the plate.

Contrary to popular belief, Vic can catch 130 games. He’s done it his whole career. The only reason he split time this year when he was with Cleveland was because of the development of Kelly Shoppach. In 2008, while Vic was on the DL, Shoppach stepped in and hit .261 and belted 21 home runs. When Vic returned, Eric Wedge tried to figure out a way to get both bats in the lineup. It was a personnel decision. It had nothing to do with the fact that Vic couldn’t do it. We’ve also made a big deal that Vic hits better when playing first base. Coming into this year, Vic started 52 games at first over his first six seasons in the big leagues. This was the first year he has started more than 24 games at first. It’s just not enough of a sample size to say that he’s a better hitter when he plays first. I know the numbers show that he was this year, but the bottom line is that Vic can hit no matter where he plays.

Another big question next year is David Ortiz. Will he be the guy that was completely lost the first two months of the season, or will he be more like the guy that since June 6 hit more home runs than any other player in the AL? It depends how you view the big guy. The days of Big Papi hitting 50 homers and driving in 140 runs are over. But will you take close to 30 homers and 100 RBI from your No. 5 or 6 hitter? Look around, how many designated hitters in the AL put up those kind of numbers? He’s also owed $12.5 million next year, so that means we can only hope that David Ortiz, who will be a year older, can at least match those numbers next year.

Mike Lowell is another big topic. The biggest concern with Mike, obviously, is his health. But when he is on the field, there isn’t a more consistent hitter on the team. He had a tough go of it in June and then again in September. I don’t think that it was a coincidence that during both of those months, Mike needed an injection in his hip to get him ready to finish both halves of the season. Can he make it through next year without any setbacks? I think he can.

When a player has surgery in the offseason, it throws off his entire conditioning program. I remember when I was playing. I would take about six weeks off to relax and give my body a break. The next six weeks, I would work out to get my body ready to go out to Arizona and work out at Athletes’ Performance. The next six weeks in Arizona were hell trying to get myself ready to play baseball for the next eight months. I never had an injury that interrupted that schedule. Mike did. He wasn’t able to do cardio. He wasn’t able to do squats or sprints or work his legs out at all, for that matter. He was too busy working on strengthening and stabilizing his hip to try to get back on the field. A healthy offseason will do Mike Lowell a world of good.

The one question that I have is: Who will be in left field? I’m not sure that the Red Sox will be willing to go to six years to keep Jason Bay. It won’t be a monetary decision. It will be a baseball decision. What will Jason Bay be like in four years at the age of 35? Will he be worth $17 million his last two or three years? I think that Jason Bay is a terrific player. He’s shown that he can handle playing in this market. He hustles. He plays every day. He may not be the best left fielder in the game, but playing at Fenway for 81 games definitely helps him. But is he worth six years? You may say yes. But if your argument starts with, “We need him because we can’t replace him,” then you’re wrong. If an organization overpays for a player or gives him more years than it is comfortable with, then it is heading for serious financial problems in the future. Hey, it’s not my money, but like I said, I don’t think this decision comes down to money. I think it comes down to projecting what kind of player Jason Bay will be four years from now.

I still feel pitching wins. The Sox next year will have the pitching as well as enough offense to remain one of the favorites in the American League. The good news is is that we’ll have another five months to talk about it. Let’s go Pats, Celts and Bruins!!!

This is not exactly how the Red Sox planned it. In losing the first two games of this best-of-five series vs. the Angels and moving to the brink of elimination, the Sox have struggled offensively, looking anemic to say the least.

But are they done? I’m not ready to give up.

I’ve been on two Red Sox teams that have come back from down 0-2. In 1999, we were down 2-0 to the Indians only to come back and win that series. In 2003, we came back once again from being down 2-0 to the A’s.

So, what is the mindset of this team? I’ll tell you, it’s not a good feeling. But after showing up in February with a goal in mind, now is not the time to give up. Your focus is on winning one game. The rally cry in the past has been, “Don’t let us win one.” That’s what this team is saying. If the Sox can win Game 3, they’ll have Jon Lester going for Game 4, albeit on short rest, but it’s something to look forward to.

But can they get to Game 4? We’ll see how Clay Buchholz handles the pressure. This is a kid who has been talked up by this organization for some time now, and it’s time for him to step up and show us all what he can do. His last two starts haven’t exactly been encouraging, but I think that we all know that the stuff is there. The question is: Can he execute? He has shown in the past that he can be rattled. You just hope that Sunday he gets it done. Maybe it’s Clay’s time to shine and make a name for himself. We’ll find out soon enough.

When we’ve talked about this offense in the past, the one thing that the Sox have always done is be patient yet aggressive within the strike zone. We haven’t seen that yet this year in the postseason. It seems like a lot of guys are expanding the strike zone and at times letting some pitches go that should be hit.

Are they pressing? Yes. How do you get out of that? Heading home to the friendly confines of Fenway Park should help. Being down 2-0 can also sometimes relieve some of that pressure. You have nothing to lose. Everyone, except for the guys in that clubhouse, thinks it’s over.

But averaging four hits a game definitely isn’t going to get it done. They have the offense to get it done. Regardless of what people say, there aren’t any easy outs in this lineup even though John Lackey and Jered Weaver have made it look otherwise. An early lead and a ton of hits in Game 3 could turn this thing around quickly. It’s not a good situation to be in, but they’ve been here before.