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| Holliday/Halladay Shopping Spree for Sox? | 11.19.09 at 8:31 am ET |
I’ve been sitting around for weeks now thinking about what the Red Sox will do this off season. Will they bring back Jason Bay? Do they make a run at Adrian Gonzalez or Felix Hernandez? Do they trade for Roy Halladay? Do they open the checkbook for Matt Holliday?
I’m starting to think that they are about to make a big move this winter. Why, you ask? All you have to do is look at this team’s payroll since John Henry purchased the club following the 2001 season. Keep in mind, these figures are the team’s payroll going into each season.
year payroll
2001 110,035,883
2002 108,366,060
2003 99,946,500
2004 127,298,500
2005 123,505,125
2006 120,099,824
2007 143,026,214
2008 133,390,035
2009 121,745,999
Payroll went down in ‘02 and ‘03 before it skyrocketed in ‘04, the year the Red Sox won the World Series. Payroll again went down for two seasons in ‘05 and ‘06 before it had a big jump in ‘07, when the Sox once again won the World Series.
Check out what the Sox payroll has done the last two years. Now, I’m not saying that it’s a given that the Sox are going to go on a shopping spree this off season and win the World Series again, but there seems to be a pattern here. The Sox cut payroll for two years and then made a big jump the next year. Maybe this is just a coincidence, maybe it’s a business plan.
Whatever the reason, if the team follows the pattern, the next question is, who in this class of free agents do you open up the checkbook for? Let me give you my two cents. You make two moves: you sign Matt Holliday and you trade for Roy Halladay. It would cause utter chaos over the sports radio airwaves as members of Red Sox Nation would constantly confuse the two to no end. It would make great headlines for all the print media if they can get both done before, you guessed it, the holidays. Let’s not forget that they are both very good at what they do.
I’m sure there are those out there saying, ‘Why not just bring back Jason Bay?’ You make a good point, but I just feel that Holliday is a better all around player. He’s younger, albeit a year and a half. The one edge that I would give Bay would be that he has already shown us that he can play in this market. I know that’s extremely important, but sometimes you have to take a chance. The Sox did with Bay when they picked him up to replace Manny Ramirez in left a year and a half ago.
I’ve heard a lot of people say that Holliday is a National League hitter. I couldn’t disagree more. First off, Oakland is not a good place to hit. It’s a big ballpark where the ball doesn’t carry very well. Secondly, that lineup that he was in was anemic. He had nobody getting on base in front of him with no protection behind him. Not a good combination for success. Thirdly, and I think most importantly, it was the first time in his career that he was traded.
I remember when I was traded in 2003 to the San Diego Padres. I had spent my whole career with the Boston Red Sox and I found myself trying too hard to prove my worth to my new teammates. At times, I put too much pressure on myself, especially early in the season. You can look at Holliday’s numbers in Oakland and say that they weren’t that impressive, but you have to look deeper. In his last 16 games with Oakland before the trade, Holliday hit .349 with 3 HRs and 13 RBIs. Go back to his last 26 games and you’ll see that he hit .330. The point is is that he was starting to get comfortable and hitting American League pitching just fine.
You can look at Roy Halladay and say that he was the one that got away, at least last year. Toronto will trade Halladay, the question is to whom? They have to trade him. There is no way they can hold onto him for another season and just let him go for nothing.
What I’m wondering is did Clay Buchholz’s trade stock rise last season? I think that it did. He finally showed that he can get it done in the Big Leagues. But if Toronto insists that Daniel Bard be included in the package, I don’t see this thing taking place. Of course if a deal is done, the Sox would have to work out an extension in order for Halladay to waive his no-trade clause.
So how much are these two worth? I would say that Holliday is looking for six years. Would he settle for five years at $18 million per season? If he does … done. I think Halladay (who is set to earn $15.75 million in 2010) would want an extension of at least three years. This one could get interesting because Halladay has every right to compare himself to Johan Santana, who signed in 2008 at the age of 29 for six years and $137.5 million. Roy Halladay is 32. I would say a three-year deal sounds about right. The question is how much is he looking for? Maybe $20 million? Let’s say three years at $18 million per season … done.
So we are talking $36 million a year for two players. Money well spent. Sounds like a nice jump in payroll to me. Don’t you just love spending other people’s money? (Sorry, Mr. Henry.)
It is interesting to think about that jump, since after payroll has gone down two years in a row, there is a pattern that shows an increase in that third year. I guess we’ll have to wait and see if it’s nothing more than a coincidence.
Lou Merloni will be joined by WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford and Alex Speier on Thursday, Nov. 19, at noon for a Red Sox Hot Stove Chat. To join the conversation, click here.
15 Comments for “Holliday/Halladay Shopping Spree for Sox?”
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November 19th, 2009 at 11:05 am
Why would you go with Holliday instead of Gonzalez? Or, if you could only make one move, would you focus on Holliday, Halladay or Gonzalez (assuming Felix isn’t out there)?
November 19th, 2009 at 11:21 am
Tom, First off, I firmly believe that if the Sox are to trade away Buchholtz, they need to get pitching in return. If he goes to San Diego for Gonzalez, than you lose the trading chip to get Halladay. Trading Buch for Gonzalez would force the Sox to look into signing Lackey. That would take too many years and alot of cash. I think Lackey should get more than AJ Burnett. Besides, there currently is a hole in left field, not first. A healthy off season for Lowell will allow him to get stronger and give the Sox another productive year.
November 19th, 2009 at 12:02 pm
Lou, I don’t think Halladay would only want a 3 year contract. Why wouldn’t he be looking for 5 or 6? I know it’s tough to lock up a pitcher for that long, but at 32, he’s probably looking at this as his last huge contract. So I don’t see him settling for 3. And would the Sox go for 5? I doubt it…
November 19th, 2009 at 1:04 pm
I feel like the Red Sox might not go as overboard as some people think this year. I feel like they are priming themselves for next season when the free agent market really gets interesting. Sure they can trade talent for a 30 something pitcher, but to me they need to get younger and faster on offense and shore up their starters. The Angels series certainly proved that.
November 19th, 2009 at 3:31 pm
I agree with signing Holliday. They are going to have to overpay for Holliday or Bay in terms of dollars and years and Holliday is younger and a more complete player so to me he is worth it. I think they should trade for a pitcher as well, and if they can’t get Felix Hernandez then Roy Halladay is a pretty good concolation prize.
November 19th, 2009 at 8:26 pm
Great stuff, Lou. I had never noticed the payroll pattern until now, I hope it continues like that. I agree with making a run at Halladay, but I think Bay should be the priority over Holliday. We already know what Bay will do here, and though we assume Holliday will, too, it is a risk. Thank you for not suggesting Barney Gumble, I mean Lackey..As a true Sox fan I don’t think I could handle that.
November 20th, 2009 at 8:49 am
Lou, I have to disagree with your assessment on trading Buchholz for Halladay. It all depends on how you project the next 3-5 years of Roy (if you even get an extension which is not a guarantee) versus the next 3-5 of Buchholz. Now Halladay may be the better bet going forward, but would it be worth the difference in payroll? Remember, Halladay will be entering his mid 30s while Buchholz will be entering his prime years. In my opinion, you keep Clay and use the roughly $15 mil a year to better the team elsewhere.
November 20th, 2009 at 9:58 am
Jamie, I can understand that, but we just have different views on Buccholtz. I have said over and over again how much I love his “stuff and that has been backed up when I talk to opposing hitters, but their is more to pitching then just “stuff”….ie AJ Burnett. It concerns me how fragile he is on the mound. During game 3 of the ALDS, the minute he balked Tito should have taken him if he could have. He loses it too easily. He’s young but its not like he’s 21, he’s 25
November 20th, 2009 at 10:27 am
what about the real hole in the sox team….SHORTSTOP, and id rather see them go after wagner and resign wagner and keep bard in the halliday deal
November 20th, 2009 at 10:43 am
Here is an idea, why not go after all three? First you trade Drew. He has a fat contract, and is always hurt. I think he is making 15 mil. a year, so there you go. Trade him away for a pitcher that does not cost that much money and your set. Then you can go and re-sign Bay as well. If they got all three they would have the best pitching and best outfield there is.
November 20th, 2009 at 11:09 am
Lou
I agree with most of what you said. To me, a deal for Halladay has its risks (losing org. depth in minors, older player who has pitched a lot of innings) However, the reward is having an absolutely unbelievable rotation this season (Lester, Beckett, Halladay, Dice-K), that will give you the chance to win a ton of games!
As for Holliday/ Bay. Your going to have to overpay for both, but Bay seems like he will give us more pop…which this team really needs now. Plus, he will probably be cheaper. IMO defensive concerns with Bay seem a little overblown. Still, he might be a defensive liability down the line, well the DH spot should be opening up right around then.
If the Red Sox do go hard after Holliday and sign him to a big contract, it seems likely that they will be more limited next year with some intriguing free agents hitting the market.
November 20th, 2009 at 2:30 pm
Hey Lou,
Did they teach writing at Framingham High? You’re a half-step above illiterate.
November 21st, 2009 at 1:59 am
“I’m starting to think that they are about to make a big move this winter.”
That’s because you’re a f*cking homer. And your writing is horrific.
November 21st, 2009 at 7:49 am
Hey UmustBkidding! Your vocabulary is horrific. How about a little civility?
November 22nd, 2009 at 1:55 pm
UmustBkilled- Calling Lou Merloni a homer is like calling your girl hot: Say it all you want, but it will never be true. And as far as Lou’s writing, who made you a f*cking journalism expert. Go shine J Sterling’s shoes you Yankme meatball.