| How the Lineup Will Stack Up in 2010 | 10.14.09 at 9:04 pm ET |
Now that the season is officially over, it’s time to talk about next year. I think that we all agree that as long as the Red Sox still have Jon Lester, Josh Beckett, Daisuke Matsuzaka and Clay Buchholz, their pitching staff is lined up to be one of the best in the American League once again. Their bullpen still has its solid core at the back end with Jonathan Papelbon and Daniel Bard to go with another year of Hideki Okajima. There still are some question marks when it comes to Manny Delcarmen as well as Ramon Ramirez. But for the most part, it’s not the pitching staff that has Red Sox Nation concerned next year. It’s the offense.
We get so caught up in what we just saw, and what we just saw wasn’t pretty. John Lackey and Jered Weaver are very good pitchers, but we never thought that they were good enough to make this lineup look as anemic as it looked for the first two games of the postseason.
The truth of the matter is that good pitching beats good hitting. We may not want to admit it, but Lackey and Weaver pitched their butts off. After hearing caller after caller this week, I find it funny that nobody wants to admit that. Everyone thinks that it was the lack of offense and that this lineup was a big disappointment. I agree that it was, but what do you think that Angels fans were saying last year when Lester threw 14 innings without giving up an earned run? Do you really think that they felt he was that good? Or do you think that they were saying the exact same thing we are? Or when Beckett was virtually unhittable during October in 2007? Was that really him or was it because every offense he faced underachieved? Face it, Red Sox fans, they pitched better. It wasn’t the offense. It wasn’t playing on the road. It was Lackey and Weaver. End of story.
So where does this team go to improve this lineup next year? I’m one that believes that we may not see many changes at all. I believe that Victor Martinez will be the everyday catcher and Jason Varitek, once he picks up his player option for $3 million, will be the backup. The Sox, as a team, hit .239 at the catcher position in 2009. That will improve with Vic behind the plate.
Contrary to popular belief, Vic can catch 130 games. He’s done it his whole career. The only reason he split time this year when he was with Cleveland was because of the development of Kelly Shoppach. In 2008, while Vic was on the DL, Shoppach stepped in and hit .261 and belted 21 home runs. When Vic returned, Eric Wedge tried to figure out a way to get both bats in the lineup. It was a personnel decision. It had nothing to do with the fact that Vic couldn’t do it. We’ve also made a big deal that Vic hits better when playing first base. Coming into this year, Vic started 52 games at first over his first six seasons in the big leagues. This was the first year he has started more than 24 games at first. It’s just not enough of a sample size to say that he’s a better hitter when he plays first. I know the numbers show that he was this year, but the bottom line is that Vic can hit no matter where he plays.
Another big question next year is David Ortiz. Will he be the guy that was completely lost the first two months of the season, or will he be more like the guy that since June 6 hit more home runs than any other player in the AL? It depends how you view the big guy. The days of Big Papi hitting 50 homers and driving in 140 runs are over. But will you take close to 30 homers and 100 RBI from your No. 5 or 6 hitter? Look around, how many designated hitters in the AL put up those kind of numbers? He’s also owed $12.5 million next year, so that means we can only hope that David Ortiz, who will be a year older, can at least match those numbers next year.
Mike Lowell is another big topic. The biggest concern with Mike, obviously, is his health. But when he is on the field, there isn’t a more consistent hitter on the team. He had a tough go of it in June and then again in September. I don’t think that it was a coincidence that during both of those months, Mike needed an injection in his hip to get him ready to finish both halves of the season. Can he make it through next year without any setbacks? I think he can.
When a player has surgery in the offseason, it throws off his entire conditioning program. I remember when I was playing. I would take about six weeks off to relax and give my body a break. The next six weeks, I would work out to get my body ready to go out to Arizona and work out at Athletes’ Performance. The next six weeks in Arizona were hell trying to get myself ready to play baseball for the next eight months. I never had an injury that interrupted that schedule. Mike did. He wasn’t able to do cardio. He wasn’t able to do squats or sprints or work his legs out at all, for that matter. He was too busy working on strengthening and stabilizing his hip to try to get back on the field. A healthy offseason will do Mike Lowell a world of good.
The one question that I have is: Who will be in left field? I’m not sure that the Red Sox will be willing to go to six years to keep Jason Bay. It won’t be a monetary decision. It will be a baseball decision. What will Jason Bay be like in four years at the age of 35? Will he be worth $17 million his last two or three years? I think that Jason Bay is a terrific player. He’s shown that he can handle playing in this market. He hustles. He plays every day. He may not be the best left fielder in the game, but playing at Fenway for 81 games definitely helps him. But is he worth six years? You may say yes. But if your argument starts with, “We need him because we can’t replace him,” then you’re wrong. If an organization overpays for a player or gives him more years than it is comfortable with, then it is heading for serious financial problems in the future. Hey, it’s not my money, but like I said, I don’t think this decision comes down to money. I think it comes down to projecting what kind of player Jason Bay will be four years from now.
I still feel pitching wins. The Sox next year will have the pitching as well as enough offense to remain one of the favorites in the American League. The good news is is that we’ll have another five months to talk about it. Let’s go Pats, Celts and Bruins!!!
30 Comments for “How the Lineup Will Stack Up in 2010”
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October 15th, 2009 at 10:51 am
I think our team will be fine if when we are on the road and the first time through the line we don’t get anything going, Tito lets go of his we don’t give away outs philiophsy and play more small ball. It would mean every player in our line up (not just Ellsbury, Pedroia and Gonzalez (or Green, who seems to do it the best)) needs to practice bunting.
October 15th, 2009 at 3:07 pm
With Lowell signed through next year – Here are the key guys that the Sox should target:
Chone Figgins
Keep Gonzalez or sign Tejada
Extend Beckett and Papelbon
This will set them up for the massive 2011 class of Pujols, Carlos Pena, Berkman, Reyes, Rollins, Carl Crawford, Dunn, Kubel, Hawpe and pitchers: Cain, Halladay, Lee, and Webb (along with Beckett).
October 15th, 2009 at 3:08 pm
Mike Lowell’s been great, but Adrian Beltré is the answer for the Sox. He has a better glove than Lowell (which isn’t easy to do) and will hit balls off the monster all day long. He’s perfect.
October 15th, 2009 at 3:17 pm
It’s pitching and I agree that is why we lost. That begs a question, we lost with Lester, Beckett and Buchholz so don’t we need another ace to bet the Angels next year? Will we play them next year in the playoffs! Let’s package a deal for Halladay!
October 15th, 2009 at 3:19 pm
Beltre has a higher price tag and similar injury concerns. It would be a waste of time. Go get Figgins, put him in the two hole behind Ellsbury and put him in left or right field and move Drew to left. This leaves a lineup of
Ellsbury – Figgins – Youkilis – Martinez – Pedroia – Ortiz – Lowell – Drew – Gonzalez/Tejada
October 15th, 2009 at 3:19 pm
Good Stuff Lou. I think you nailed it, plain and simple, the team got outpitched by two guys who were able to execute pitches with their best stuff. It happens, and if it happened in May or June, the response by RSN would be, “we ran into some hot pitchers.” Unfortunately, it happened in October on the biggest stage. As for 2010, we might as well skip the pitching and go right to the hitting because with a top 4 of Lester, Beckett, Dice, and Buch, you’re probably looking at the best rotation in the AL (although, I wouldn’t mind a one-year deal with someone like Rich Harden to pair up with Wakefield at the back of the rotation – do it Theo). As for the offense, the two biggest questions to me are LF and SS. I’m somewhat surprised to hear Theo talk about his desire to resign Bay, because if he does, and if it’s more than 3 years, it’s a terrible baseball decision. The right move is to sign Matt Holliday, who is younger than Bay, plays better defense, and should provide more offense than Bay over the length of a contract. With Holliday in LF, the other questionable spot is SS. Picking up the 6M option on Gonzalez is a thought, but it’s the wrong thought. The Sox need to find someone to pair up with Lowrie, and I hope they go after JJ Hardy from Milwaukee, who struggled bigtime this season, but if you look at his career path, there’s hope for a rebound. If he doesn’t rebound, I’d like to see Scutero on a short term deal.
Ellsbury
Pedroia
Vmart
Youk
Drew
Holliday
Ortiz
Lowell
Hardy/Lowrie/Scutero
Lester
Beckett
Dice
Buch
Harden/Wakefield
October 15th, 2009 at 3:29 pm
prospect – you are way off on that lineup. Nice thought about getting another reach from the National League in Harden though. My only question for you is will Harden will be a younger version of Smoltz and Penny who went to the AL and got pounded or in the case of Penny (worked hard) and then return to the NL and be pretty successful. Harden did not pitch well last year and is another candidate to hit the DL in 2010. I will take my chances with Bowden and Wakefield.
October 15th, 2009 at 3:29 pm
For all you People who say Pitching wins. I agree to a point. But Hey you have to be able to hit Good pitching. And from what I have seen the Sox proved they can not. So they need to improve some how. Great Ortiz hit more homers the last half than any one else. But what good are 28 homer if you can’t get a single or a walk when you need it. I’ll take 200 hits over 28 Home runs. Don’t get me wrong I love Pappi, But he needs to earn his spot next year, It should not be given to him because of his 12 million.
October 15th, 2009 at 3:55 pm
Lou I really enjoy what you bring to the table, the one thing I see is how you actually bring true insight on players troubles, it really shows how Boston Media has come along way since the 80s negative approach. One thing I’d like to mention, this pitching staff is set up great for 2010. I do think that Papelbon should be working as a starter though,he has great stuff and strength to last into the 7th 200 innings vs 80 I would always choose 200. I see 15 wins a low era and Bard the closer he has shown he has the stones to take over. Plus Paps wants that big payday, switch him its time!! Hitting – Feilder!Feilder!Feilder! Get him and we win World Series 2010 Say by to our beloved Lowe, Youk to 3rd, Sign JBay
October 15th, 2009 at 4:01 pm
I would…
– Trade Papelbon for a big old right-handed hitter who could DH, pinch-hit, and maybe play a bit of first — all whenever needed. Picture Mayor Casey with muscle. Picture Jim Thome only righty.
– Make Bard the closer right now. His stuff is electric. Pap is losing speed and offers little variety. A closer with one pitch is very very rare (Rivera).
– Sign Billy Wagner as an 8th-inning set-up man and part-time closer. With another 6 months of work, he could likely go 2 days in a row. You gotta luv his speed, control, and presence.
– Urge Wake to retire. What a great way to go out — All-Star!
– Get Ortiz to show up in shape to spring training. His days of playing into shape are over. Age is the enemy of us all here.
– Sign Bay to whatever it takes. He’s perfect for the Sox and he strikes me as someone that will keep himself in shape beyond the age of 34. I’ll take Lowell and Bay even as they decline from their prime.
– I’ll assume that we can’t deal Drew at his money level. He’s still a solid fielder. I wish he hit better and showed more emotion, but he is what he is. And I’ll settle for this versus taking a flyer on someone else or paying part of his salary in a Manny-like deal. That said…We need a fourth outfielder that can give us .270, 15-20 homers, and play 120 games across all three outfield positions. Can Rocco be that guy? Any guarantees? Can a new guy step into this role?
– I would extend Pedroia, Youk, Ellsbury as far as possible and ride them into forever.
– We made a mistake with Gonzales before. Why do it again? Are there better hitters? Yes. Are there better fielders? Yes. But this guy is solid at both ends and he plays consistently well. Why spend big bucks on a position where you’re getting great value. Gonzo is both playoff- and world series-capable.
– Agree on Vic being the starting cather and Tek backing him up. Although we’re assuming that Tek will pick up his option. I picture other teams interested in him as starter/mentor in a younger team.
– Ramon goes. Delcarmen goes. Okajima stays. Work another couple of young guns from AAA into the mix. Take another flyer on an aging fifth starter. We have enough young arms to back him up if he fails. Think Smoltz only with more gas in the tank — and maybe a lefty to go with Lester.
Sorry for the length, but I just got to thinking… while still dreaming of what could have been with a better last inning on Sunday!
October 15th, 2009 at 4:04 pm
Why is it that no one questions why Francona continued to bat Ortiz in the 5 hole. Please stop with that garbage about all the home runs and RBI’s he had from June on. How many of the “home runs” won ball games. Very few. He was hitting home runs off # 4 or 5 starters or a mop up bullpen guy. He looks awful when facing top notch pitching, (see recently completed playoffs) David may be back next year, but I say he won’t hit, and he’ll finish out his contract on the bench as a pinch hitter, unless Tito feels bad for him again, and continues to watch him strike out, pop up, or fail to rubn to first base on a ground ball. How long do you think he’s get away with that attitude playing for most other manager’s. Tito wants to be loved by his players to the detrement of winning. One other thing, can we ask “prospect” why JJ Hardy over Alex Gonzalez??? Forget Lowrie, he’s a wimp.
October 15th, 2009 at 4:10 pm
The main problem with the RS this year was:
They could not hit good pitching. Every time they faced an ace they struggled.
At the same time our best pitchers were often ineffective against good hitting teams.
We did fine against mediocre teams.
October 15th, 2009 at 4:24 pm
Lou I say let Bay walk go after Scutero and Figgins the Sox will wear out opposing pitchers with this lineup, have Figgins play left for one year while Lowell finishes up at third. Figgins gives them Youk like flexability and another big base stealer.
October 15th, 2009 at 4:29 pm
Barry – way off how? What are your suggestions? Also, Harden didn’t pitch well last year – 138IP 117H 168K – what’s your issue with him? We are talking about a #4-5 on this team, we’re not looking for him to be carry the staff. If no Harden or Sheets, I’d be ok with Bowden/Wakefield in the 5 spot, just saying Harden is the better option if on short term deal.
Mike – Lowrie’s a wimp? Are you 12? The wrist is a concern, no doubt, but he’s 25, so I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt for another season to see what he can do. As for the why not Gonzalez question, well, because he’s one of the worst hitters in the league and picking up his option for $6M is crazy talk. Hardy’s one year removed from being one of the best hitting SS’s in baseball and turns 27 next year, notoriously the peek season for most hitters. I’d much rather Theo take a gamble on someone like them then pay 6M for a hole in the lineup.
Mark – “Sign Bay to whatever it takes. He’s perfect for the Sox and he strikes me as someone that will keep himself in shape beyond the age of 34. I’ll take Lowell and Bay even as they decline from their prime.”
You may take him, but Theo won’t. Did you take a 10 year break from following the Sox and just start again today? That’s the old line of thinking, and the absolutely wrong thing to do.
You wish Drew hit better? He had the 4th highest OPS for an OF’er, not sure what you’re looking for.
October 15th, 2009 at 4:46 pm
regarding David Ortiz, in 2008, he battled a bad knee adn then on top of that a bad wrist. IMO he spent much of the end of 2008 adjusting his swing to compensate for the injuries.
Then in the off-season, he most likely spent a lot more time healing than working out or working on his swing.
when the 2009 campaign started, he was both rusty, unprepared (off-season recovery) AND needing to undo the adjustments he had made the previous year due to injury.
It took him two months to work through that.
If he hits in 2010 like he did in June-Sept 2009, his numbers would approximate 40 hrs, 120 rbi’s, and a .270-.280 batting average.
not only are those #s good, they are realistic. he just did that this year.
the lingering question then becomes, can he do it against the best pitching? can he reassert himself both as a hitting force and a ’spiritual’ leader in the clubhouse.
I think the steroid list issue hurt his leadership and agressiveness during the season.
Maybe next year that will also be in the rear view mirror.
I don’t think we’ve seen the last of David Ortiz.
October 15th, 2009 at 5:12 pm
The Red Sox look old and slow.
October 15th, 2009 at 5:14 pm
Oh dang it, my whole thing just got deleted. I’ll sum it up
How are we not talking about dumping Pap? He’s a one trick pony that hitters are catching up to.
Trade Pap, Wagner becomes the interim closer, Bard takes over in ‘11. Lets trade our one trick pony up for another with a faster fastball.
October 15th, 2009 at 5:21 pm
Looking at all the free agents and potential free agents out there lead me to believe the Sox won’t stay with Bay unless he is willing to take a 4 year deal for say 60 mil. I would love to see what happens in Tampa with Carl Crawford. His option is for 10 mil and the Rays have an up and coming outfielder they want on the field. I know Crawford won’t hit 30 HR’s or knock in 120 RBI, but wouldn’t you be comfortbale with him hitting 3rd with at .300 avg 20 HR’s and say 90 RBI’s? Not to mention the SB’s and potential for runs scored. They could stick V-Mart in the 4 spot and look for another 30 HR guy through another position.
October 15th, 2009 at 5:36 pm
I heard rumblings about the Sox being interested in acquiring Prince Fielder. Heard anything? thoughts?
October 15th, 2009 at 5:39 pm
David Ortiz will hit 15 home runs and knock in 65 runs…he’s done. You know what Theo and Tito need to do…draft a power hitter, enough of this pitching and small ball babyback bs. It’s time to produce a power hitter. A prince fielder or adrian gonzalez type even a Jay Bay. Shorstop tejada has ben the man we’ve needed ever since he went to the orioles. 20 homeruns and 80 rbi’s is something we havent had since nomar. Harden is an alright pitcher for the Sox but he’ll struggle just like carl pavano did with the yankees. Figgins would be the greatest addition to the Sox, i mean 10 homeruns, 75 rbi’s and 30 sb with decent fielding? Couldnt ask nething more from a guy like that. From a power stand point with Drew, he had his best year with the Sox and 3rd highest season for him with 24 home runs. He will most likely do the same next year with more rbi’s. Sox will be dominant next year with Jason Bay Back and Pap as the 4th starter and Bard as the closer or visa versa with Bard and Pap.
October 15th, 2009 at 5:47 pm
Prospect – your thinking is possibly 3rd place next year and at best just short of the same results as this year. Largely, and unfortunately, in part, because we play in the same division as the powerful Yankees.
Ortiz is done as the feared and very productive hitter. Even if he had another Manny making things better (which we don’t and likely won’t have).
Lowell is good at Fenway with his dead pull swing. What about the other 81 games?
Drew will probably be around because of his salary. It would be nice to have enough offense porductivity to have him as a 7 hole batter.
A major league team MUST have exceptional up the middle players: CF good, 2B good, SS – ??, C – our opponents will run us ragged if we don’t get a good defensive player.
I do like your thoughts on getting Holliday.
I am not sure where we get the offensive replacements, maybe good scouting will get us some young stuff.
This year’s offense was anemic whenever facing good or better pitching.
It will take more than one ingredient to fix it.
But we need to concentrate on a good defensive catcher and everyday SS.
I think Tek is done being a productive player. I love the guy and thank you for your contribution.
Bay? Personally, I like the guy and think he might be good for Boston. However, I do have to say, he really looked like he was super pressing during the playoffs.
Pitching – If Wake can pitch he is a very valuable commodity during the regular season. Nobody eats up innings like he can. You need that during the season.
I think next year we have a very powerful threesome with: Lestor, Becket, and DiceK. Bucholz will makes for a great 5 man rotation!
Hopefully mouth’s, I mean Papelban’s failure in the ALCS will bring some humilty to his makeup. If not, rely on Bard with Wagner and Ochigima (sp?). And, then, of course, some young arms for those mop up and in between days.
Drastic change in approach of offense next year. Stay young.
October 15th, 2009 at 5:51 pm
Sox, please think speed and agility, over lumbering power.
October 15th, 2009 at 5:52 pm
I would love to see Crawford with the Sox!
October 15th, 2009 at 9:46 pm
I do like the ideas of Figgins, and Crawford coming to town. Because I think either one would complement Ellsbury, and it would make for an interesting and very fast team with alot of endurance. But if I could make a suggestion to Theo, I would say lets go out and sign Lackey. I think Lackey would be amazing for the Sox, imagine this for a second:
Lester, Beckett, Buchholz, Lackey, Matsuzaka….
October 15th, 2009 at 11:17 pm
Lou – you have grown on me; you’re the smartest analyst in town. I think the Sox would like to compete with more speed and athleticsm as we have several players such as Ortiz, Youk and VMart that are not going anywhere but offer no speed. We can sign a guy like Figgins for much less money and change the dynamic of the team a bit until we find that perfect “stud” to fill the 3 hole for the Sox. Bay should not be re-signed – great player, but this is not the time or the year to re-sign another guy who strikes out and plays with very little pazzas.
October 16th, 2009 at 4:51 am
Lou-
You don’t bring much to the table that hasn’t already been discussed by every other writer and talk-show voice. As an ex-player I would expect that you would have more insightful points to make. When I hear you on the radio, you usually exceed my expectations.
October 16th, 2009 at 10:04 am
Offense is going to be an issue for the next year or so I think. replacing Bay with Holliday probably doesn’t change much although he’s better defensively. 1st base is where we must get an impact bat sliding Youk over to 3b permanently. Cabrera, Fielder, Adrian, would all be huge improvements to the offense.
October 16th, 2009 at 4:56 pm
Figgans is the answer in LF for 2010. That leaves you with Ellsbury, Figgans, Pedroia, Martinez, Youkilis, Ortiz, Lowell, Drew, SS for this upcoming year. In 2011, it gives the flexibility of shopping for 2 of the 3: LF, RF, 3B since Figgans can play all three very well. This would also provide 3 high average/on-base, good speed guys at the top of the order (think mid-90’s Indians with Lofton, Vizquel, and Alomar). Figgans is also one of the smartest hitters in the game and could thrive in the #2 spot. A full season of Martinez, a rejuvinated Ortiz, healthy Lowell, and rebounding Drew can pick up the slack of Bay’s power numbers for 2010.
October 17th, 2009 at 8:15 pm
First of all, I wouldn’t touch the SS position – that is one of the places the change of players has been disruptive. Gonzalez is fine, and perhaps Lowrie will be able to improve in ‘10. Bullpen: I would rely less on Ramirez and hope that DelCarmen can get things together again. I would not replace Paps with Bard, but have both ready to go. Martinez over Varitek definitely – the hard playing and commitment have caught up with ‘Tek but he seems so valuable that he needs to be with them team next hear. I hope Bay will be back, but I know business is business…it was nice to see a sensible normal person replacing Manny-Being-Manny.
October 23rd, 2009 at 1:41 am
Machine here and I look forward to playing for Boston in the next couple years…Make it happen guys…28/6 and i’m yours…
1. Wake doesn’t need to retire but what should happen is Theo needs to give him the R.Clemons treatment and have him come back in late June…Also throw in his contract an extra couple million if he can lose 25 pounds for that silly gut he is sporting…No wonder his back is a mess…
2. Leave Papi alone…He will hit out of his ass this year…No doubt about it…Sure the bat speed has dropped but nothing a CC here and a CC there can’t fix
3. Make Mike Lowell an exclusive Fenway park hitter…Rest him on the road and play him at home…He is one of the Lazy’s hitters to ever play the game…Without the green monster, he would have been a utility player 2 years ago…Throw Greene and Lowrie at third on the road
4. Its time to rain in Papalebon…If this guy was on the Patriots he would have been let go just because of his off field silliness…Every single pitch he throws needs to be called from the dug out…He is way to immature to be able to shrug off signs…Stop the madness
5.Get Buck on some really good anti-psycotic meds ASAP…The kids ADD is going to be the death of him…He needs to fine tune some sort of xanax/speed combo on game day…How he got away with most of those pitches up in the zone against the Angels is mind boggling…Almost as lucky as dice-k a year ago…
6.Think about throwing Victor some kind of 3 year 45m deal mid-way through the season if not sooner…I know you want him to play out of his ass this year to set himself up for a decent payoff but I think playing at Fenway is enough for this guy to get up for games…This guy is worth 15 a year no doubt about it…And I think 3 years with a possible 4th option would be doable…
7. Try to keep the Captain here for the 3 million…He can still walk into a dozen deep balls and can control the plate when needed…Also keep Heidi away from him…
8. Lets Beckett’s contract play out…Even if he wins 25 games this year, he is not going to hold up at the wrong side of 30…We need pitchers who can keep the ball down in the zone…If ever there was a time to go after Holladay…The guy keeps EVERYTHING down in the zone…
9. Don’t give BAy more then 3 years…If you want to give him 3years at 60 then I’m cool with that…He isn’t worth 20 but who cares…I just don’t want to be playing first base in 5 years and see his sorry ass still in left field or hitting DH…And tell the guy to lay off the HGH for crying out loud…His skull visor is oh so obvious…
10. Keep Alex at short but load up a contract that says if he hits 280 and 20 homeruns/80 RBI’s, he gets 3 million more…Make this guy over achieve…